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Post by RBHeadge PE on Aug 5, 2022 9:04:52 GMT -5
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Post by RBHeadge PE on Aug 5, 2022 9:17:28 GMT -5
I've gamed this out with the assumptions of: Townies always vote - not a safe assumption with 3-4 mostly inactive players townies don't vote for known/safe townies Mafia always nightkills logically No doctor saves Random (no inductive or deductive reasoning) lynch target
As of right now, the odds of a town win are 50% 1/6 best case 1/6 worst case 4/6 various paths that result in a 1T-1M-1? vote on the last day, which is a 50/50
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Post by ME2EE PE on Aug 5, 2022 9:18:46 GMT -5
My thoughts: Pretty sure the Cassandra is dead. They weren't protected last night, which means either the doctor is dead or inactive. By the math there's probably two mafia left, so they must have figured out the Cassandra and gone after them. To me it looks like a big gamble because the doctor could still be alive. So the mafia must be actively watching but laying low. Reads: EdgyCheesyGraphite_PE - Definitely townie ME2EE PE , - Definitely townie chart99 PE , - Townie + (based on early voting for txjennah PE ,) RBHeadge PE , - Lean townie based on somewhat early vote for txjennah PE ,despite being part of cop killers JayKay PE , - lean mafia based on comment where she was hesitant to vote for txjennah PE , ChebyshevII PE PMP , MeowMeow PE , - neutral but suspiciously quiet BlueBluePrint PE PMP , I vote for JayKay PE , for the time being pending further discussion Edit: I was typing all this before reading RBHeadge PE ,'s post, but his reads make sense to me.
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Post by MeowMeow PE on Aug 5, 2022 9:25:23 GMT -5
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Post by djl PE on Aug 5, 2022 9:45:33 GMT -5
Rough night sleeping last night. I think I have a pinched nerve in my shoulder. Ugh! djl PE was lynched by the mafia Remaining players. JayKay PE , chart99 PE , ChebyshevII PE PMP , txjennah PE , EdgyCheesyGraphite_PE , ME2EE PE , Dothracki PE , eyehatelandscaping PE , MeowMeow PE , RBHeadge PE , Blybrook PE Just saw this because I wondered why there was a ghost next to my name. I was very confused by the gif in response to my post disclosing my affiliations..... until now. Sorry everyone!
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Post by BlueBluePrint PE PMP on Aug 5, 2022 10:30:32 GMT -5
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Post by BlueBluePrint PE PMP on Aug 5, 2022 10:31:54 GMT -5
Rough night sleeping last night. I think I have a pinched nerve in my shoulder. Ugh! djl PE was lynched by the mafia Remaining players. JayKay PE , chart99 PE , ChebyshevII PE PMP , txjennah PE , EdgyCheesyGraphite_PE , ME2EE PE , Dothracki PE , eyehatelandscaping PE , MeowMeow PE , RBHeadge PE , Blybrook PE Just saw this because I wondered why there was a ghost next to my name. I was very confused by the gif in response to my post disclosing my affiliations..... until now. Sorry everyone! welcome to the party! seems a lot of people have been a bit out of it this round! no hard feelings!
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Post by ME2EE PE on Aug 5, 2022 11:06:57 GMT -5
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Post by Blybrook PE on Aug 5, 2022 12:58:57 GMT -5
Just saw this because I wondered why there was a ghost next to my name. I was very confused by the gif in response to my post disclosing my affiliations..... until now. Sorry everyone! welcome to the party! seems a lot of people have been a bit out of it this round! no hard feelings! They keep going to EB to use the PM's there
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Post by JayKay PE on Aug 5, 2022 14:09:09 GMT -5
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Post by RBHeadge PE on Aug 5, 2022 14:57:24 GMT -5
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Post by BlueBluePrint PE PMP on Aug 5, 2022 21:33:02 GMT -5
JayKay PE , was lynched by the town. they were a regular townie. Game will resume Monday. Sorry I'm late! Have a great weekend all!
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Post by ME2EE PE on Aug 8, 2022 7:50:13 GMT -5
Ugh, sorry JayKay PE ! I really thought you were mafia based on your vote for chart99 PE . Now, I don't know what to think
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Post by BlueBluePrint PE PMP on Aug 8, 2022 8:34:20 GMT -5
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Post by chart99 PE on Aug 8, 2022 9:08:20 GMT -5
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Post by RBHeadge PE on Aug 8, 2022 10:38:02 GMT -5
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Post by MeowMeow PE on Aug 8, 2022 10:51:33 GMT -5
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Post by BlueBluePrint PE PMP on Aug 8, 2022 10:52:34 GMT -5
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Post by ME2EE PE on Aug 8, 2022 10:54:56 GMT -5
BlueBluePrint PE PMP , don't we have a 3-way tie with Meow's vote? I don't want to resort to the randomizer if I have to be the tie-breaker.
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Post by RBHeadge PE on Aug 8, 2022 11:16:08 GMT -5
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Post by BlueBluePrint PE PMP on Aug 8, 2022 11:51:53 GMT -5
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Post by ME2EE PE on Aug 8, 2022 12:40:14 GMT -5
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Post by ME2EE PE on Aug 8, 2022 12:41:26 GMT -5
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Post by BlueBluePrint PE PMP on Aug 8, 2022 12:44:20 GMT -5
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Post by MeowMeow PE on Aug 8, 2022 13:01:06 GMT -5
If you guys lynch me today the game will basically be over and mafia will win. I'm super serious! No lies this game!!!! PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEEEE PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEE DON'T vote for me...LET'S TRY TO GET A MAFIA PERSON FOR REAL TODAY. ME2EE PE, you followed RBHeadge PE, 's votes for Eye and JayKay and lynched them (the COP and a TOWNIE)..... why are you following his vote again now huh? You both are very sus.
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Post by RBHeadge PE on Aug 8, 2022 13:29:57 GMT -5
If you guys lynch me today the game will basically be over and mafia will win. I'm super serious! No lies this game!!!! PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEEEE PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEE DON'T vote for me...LET'S TRY TO GET A MAFIA PERSON FOR REAL TODAY. I mean, that was the goal the other two nights. ME2EE PE, you followed RBHeadge PE, 's votes for Eye and JayKay and lynched them (the COP and a TOWNIE)..... why are you following his vote again now huh? You both are very sus. The second night was a blind shot in the dark. Friday was a slightly informed guess based on who was voting for a pseudo-confirmed townie. I'm playing the odds today. At least one of the mafia is an active player.
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Post by MeowMeow PE on Aug 8, 2022 16:40:26 GMT -5
Well I don't know what else to say. But my gut is telling me RBHeadge PE, is mafia. I know my gut is often wrong but.... ME2EE PE, chart99 PE, will you pleaseeeeeeeeeeeee take a chance and change your vote to RBH? If he is mafia, townies still might have a chance of winning. If he ends up being town, then we'll end up being in the same boat as if you kill me because I am town too. But I am begging you please believe me this time? PLEASE?!?!?! Please give townies a chance!!!
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Post by MeowMeow PE on Aug 8, 2022 19:56:45 GMT -5
Well good game everyone!
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Post by ME2EE PE on Aug 8, 2022 20:04:55 GMT -5
Yes. Good game everyone! It was a good game either way!
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Post by RBHeadge PE on Aug 8, 2022 20:22:54 GMT -5
Did I fuck this up?
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